I must say this is a very interesting post. It represents an opinion that is quite common these days, I am afraid. Plus the post is nicely wrapped into the guesswork-as-an-integer-value slogan ;)
Fortunately, the situation is not that bad in my opinion – one just needs to stop mixing apples with peaches in a single basket. Here are my thoughts:
1. Estimation, velocity, time remaining, etc. are concepts that build one of a long list of statistical models aimed to predict work completion date. Usage of models throughout disciplines of science is indispensable. Still, when using a model one needs to keep in mind its nature and built-in limitations (e.g. one cannot apply classic physics to atom-scale phenomenon – it needs to be described by quantum model.).
2. Estimation only becomes “guesswork described as an integer value” when someone, usually a development manager or sales department, grabs the estimates and turns these into a commitment expressed in number of days. Such approach clearly violates the core assumption behind statistical model predicting work completion date – estimations are not commitment, estimations represent current development team’s understanding and assessment of complexity of what is to be done.
The proper question here is why let the bad guys turn estimations into commitment? Or in the wider context, the question is why have we been letting them do this for 30+ years?
Agile is on the scene for 10+ years now, so it’s time to get out of the estimation-turned-into-commitment-behind-the-scenes ghetto. The true answer to meeting deadlines is variable scope!
3. Activity metrics serves to feed current data into the statistical model aimed to predict work completion date. There is nothing wrong with it. On the other hand, actionable metrics remains in the domain of project owner’s accountability. Although this responsibility can be delegated to a develoment team, activity metrics is an independent topic having nothing to do with the statistical model of predicting work completion date. No reason to blame statistical models for not meeting business goals.
1. Estimation, velocity, time remaining, etc. are concepts that build one of a long list of statistical models aimed to predict work completion date. Usage of models throughout disciplines of science is indispensable. Still, when using a model one needs to keep in mind its nature and built-in limitations (e.g. one cannot apply classic physics to atom-scale phenomenon – it needs to be described by quantum model.).
2. Estimation only becomes “guesswork described as an integer value” when someone, usually a development manager or sales department, grabs the estimates and turns these into a commitment expressed in number of days. Such approach clearly violates the core assumption behind statistical model predicting work completion date – estimations are not commitment, estimations represent current development team’s understanding and assessment of complexity of what is to be done.
The proper question here is why let the bad guys turn estimations into commitment? Or in the wider context, the question is why have we been letting them do this for 30+ years?
Agile is on the scene for 10+ years now, so it’s time to get out of the estimation-turned-into-commitment-behind-the-scenes ghetto. The true answer to meeting deadlines is variable scope!
3. Activity metrics serves to feed current data into the statistical model aimed to predict work completion date. There is nothing wrong with it. On the other hand, actionable metrics remains in the domain of project owner’s accountability. Although this responsibility can be delegated to a develoment team, activity metrics is an independent topic having nothing to do with the statistical model of predicting work completion date. No reason to blame statistical models for not meeting business goals.
Hi,
ReplyDeletevery nice blog,
Good information is provided.
Thanks for sharing this.
Regards,